Last October’s edition of UK Wired magazine led with the article “The web is dead. Long live the internet.” Written by former US editor Chris Anderson, it was at the same time both polemical and factually inarguable. 

While the internet is busier than ever – in the sense of the network and protocols that move data about – a declining proportion of traffic involves use of web browsers. If you think about your average day, especially if you’re a smart phone user, this will make sense.

Chances are that your time spent on Skype and phone apps are gaining ground on periods spent in a browser environment. As Anderson points out, less than a quarter of internet traffic now involves data marked up for web pages.

But does this mean that the web is dead, or at least is soon to become marginal in our lives? Is the future instead the smart phone/tablet PC app?

The Big M

I had this in mind this week as I travelled to Bath for “The Big M”.  The event, a two-day conference and workshop, was focused on the latest happenings in the world of mobile design and business developments.

There were, of course, plenty of evangelists for the world of apps, particularly those designed for Apple’s 3 key devices: the iPhone and iPod touch (essentially an iPhone without a SIM card), and the iPad (Apple’s tablet PC, the second generation of which is out in the UK today).

If these were the only platforms for mobile apps the world would be a simple place and Steve Jobs, Apple CEO, an even happier and richer man.

But alongside the Apple devices we also have Androids, phones that operate using Google’s open source operating system for mobiles.

Then there are RIM devices, best known for the BlackBerry; phones that operate using Windows Phone 7 (Microsoft’s OS); and Nokia’s Symbian phones.

Because Android in particular is used by a range of handset manufacturers, there is a multiplicity of devices that, while they have the same operating system, sport a host of screen sizes and dimensions.

Building an app for the iPhone is an effort in itself. It makes the usual software challenges: understanding user needs and designing the user experience (with due attention to Apple’s Human Interface Guidelines).

But it also involves mastery of Apple’s Software Development Kit and, more importantly, the ability to code in Objective-C (yes, there are software compilers that can help, but there’s no getting away from this).

Then comes the challenge to design, build, test, deploy and support applications across the other platforms. Small wonder that many app designers just stick to one or two operating systems and hope the others will eventually go away.

Enter the web browser

A welcome contribution to The Big M was therefore made by two chaps from Opera, the Oslo-based Software Company that produces the world’s leading mobile browsers (and thus support for mobile internet access in a web environment).

Not surprisingly they didn’t see the future as one dominated by apps. And this isn’t just because Opera are great at building browsers. Broader software developments are increasing the power and usability of the mobile web, not least with HTML5 and CSS3.

In simple terms this means it’s getting easier to optimise websites for use on mobile phones, as well as desktop PCs. Instead of having to worry about the profusion of smart phone devices and operating systems, these developments mean that websites and user functionality can be designed based on screen size and be reasonably hardware agnostic.

Contrast this with part of Chris Anderson’s article:

“Because the screens are smaller (...) mobile traffic tends to be driven by speciality software, mostly apps, designed for a single purpose. For the sake of the optimised experience on mobile devices, users forgo the general-purpose browser. They use the net, but not the web.” 

A hybrid future

Yes, apps designed for a single purpose are generally more user-friendly. They will indeed grow in importance. But they are not simple to create or maintain, at least not across multiple operating systems and devices.

Right now there are some 250,000 apps available from Apple’s App Store. Few are making any money. Commercial realities suggest that organisations commissioning apps and software houses building them will need to be judicious about what they put out there.

Until some standards emerge (unlikely for the next few years), the most we can expect is that the majority of apps will be designed with one, or possibly two, mobile eco systems in mind. With developments in mobile browsers, though, this won’t necessarily mean that other mobile users are disenfranchised.

What it does imply is a hybrid environment, with websites built for desktop users and optimised for mobiles, with apps available for certain devices, based on a prioritised set of functionality (see my earlier blog on this point).

The future is increasingly mobile. But the web won’t be dead: it will be mobile too.